Robeco Finds 66% of Investors Expect Climate Risk to Hit Asset Prices

Two-thirds of institutional and wholesale investors expect physical climate risks to have a moderate or significant impact on asset prices over the next five years, according to Robeco’s 2026 Global Climate Investing Survey. The study, based on 300 investors across Europe, North America, Asia-Pacific and South Africa, also found that 60% plan to increase allocations to investments aimed at tackling climate change over the next three years. At the same time, 47% now expect a “too little, too late” climate transition, while 44% believe the Paris Agreement goal of keeping warming well below 2°C is no longer achievable.

 

Climate Risk Is Becoming an Asset-Pricing Issue

 

Physical climate risk is moving further into mainstream investment analysis. Sixty-six percent of investors expect it to affect asset prices over the next five years, rising to 82% over a 10-year horizon. Investors also expect climate risks to influence risk budgeting, strategic asset allocation, capital market assumptions and stock selection.

The change matters because climate is increasingly being treated as a financial input rather than only a sustainability objective. Flooding, extreme heat, wildfire, water stress and other physical risks can affect property values, insurance costs, infrastructure performance and agricultural productivity, giving investors more reasons to incorporate climate exposure directly into portfolio decisions.

 

Climate Commitment Is Stabilising After Several Years of Decline

 

Forty-seven percent of investors now say climate change is central to, or a significant factor in, their investment policy, up slightly from 46% last year. Robeco expects that figure to rise to 62% over the next two years, suggesting that the decline in investor climate focus seen after its 2022 peak may be stabilising.

The same pattern appears in net-zero commitments. Twenty-two percent of investors have already made a public net-zero commitment and another 14% are in the process of doing so. Among investors with a commitment, 64% said slower government support for net zero has not changed either their commitment or investment approach.

 

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More Capital Is Expected to Move Into Climate Strategies

 

Forty-two percent of investors plan to increase allocations to investments or funds specifically targeting climate change over the next 12 months, rising to 60% over three years. European investors currently have the largest allocations, with 62% holding at least 10% of assets in climate-focused investments, compared with 48% in Asia-Pacific and 34% in North America.

Climate solutions are also attracting more interest. Forty-five percent of investors now have a general aim to increase climate-solutions exposure without setting a fixed target, up from 39% in 2025. Renewable energy and clean power remain the most widely held mitigation theme, with 68% already invested, followed by electric vehicles at 57%.

 

Adaptation and Resilience Are Becoming More Investable

 

Investor interest is also broadening beyond emissions reduction. Forty-seven percent see attractive risk-adjusted returns in climate adaptation and resilience solutions, slightly ahead of the 44% who say the same about climate mitigation technologies.

More than half, 55%, expect climate adaptation and resilience to become an increasingly attractive equity investment theme over the next three to five years. Water management, climate-resilient energy systems, healthcare and resilient infrastructure are among the areas investors already hold, reflecting growing attention to the financial consequences of physical climate change.

 

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AI and Energy Security Are Reshaping the Climate Investment Case

 

Robeco’s survey also shows investors are connecting climate strategy with newer pressures around artificial intelligence and energy security. Seventy-five percent believe disruption to oil and gas markets from conflict in the Middle East will moderately or significantly accelerate the transition towards renewable energy.

Investors are also broadly positive about AI’s contribution to some climate goals. Sixty-three percent expect AI to help accelerate sustainable infrastructure development and 57% expect it to support renewable energy deployment. Views are more cautious on water use and net zero, reflecting concerns about the energy and resource demands of large-scale computing infrastructure.

 

Investors Are Becoming More Realistic Without Abandoning Climate

 

The report points to a more pragmatic phase of climate investing. Only 19% expect an orderly transition over the next decade, while 47% expect action to remain too limited and too late and another 28% expect a disorderly transition.

Yet that weaker outlook has not translated into an exit from climate investing. Investors are instead putting more weight on physical risk, resilience, transition finance and real-world emissions reduction. The next phase appears less dependent on optimism about the global transition and more focused on how climate change affects asset values, portfolio risk and long-term investment opportunities.

 

Source: Robeco