ETC Urges COP31 to Back 35% Global Electrification by 2035

The Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) has urged COP31 leaders to accelerate clean electrification and introduce stronger policies to decarbonize heavy industry, warning that global temperatures could rise by 2.6°C by 2100 without additional climate action. In an open letter published on 6 November 2026, more than 30 business and energy leaders urged COP31 President Murat Kurum and President of Negotiations Chris Bowen to support a global target of 35% electrification by 2035. The ETC's accompanying analysis estimates that coordinated action across energy, industry, methane and deforestation could limit global warming to approximately 1.8°C.

The report, titled Still Vital, Still Possible, identifies five areas requiring accelerated action to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature objectives. These include clean electrification, faster coal phase-down, industrial decarbonization, methane reduction, and ending deforestation. The ETC argues that existing technologies could deliver substantial emissions reductions, but stronger government policies and investment incentives are essential to achieve deployment at the required scale.

 

Clean Electrification Could Reduce Projected Warming to 2.3°C

 

The ETC identifies clean electrification as the largest opportunity for reducing long-term global warming. Its proposed pathway would increase electricity's share of global final energy demand from approximately 20% today to more than 50% by 2050, while ensuring electricity generation becomes almost entirely decarbonized. Combined with an accelerated reduction in coal-fired generation, these measures could lower projected warming to around 2.3°C by 2100.

The Commission recommends that COP31 countries endorse a 35% electrification target by 2035 and establish national strategies to accelerate renewable electricity deployment, electric transport and industrial electrification. It also calls for coal's share of global electricity generation to fall from about one-third today to below 5% by 2050. While falling renewable energy and battery costs could make much of this transition economically attractive, retiring existing coal plants early would require additional financial support.

 

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Heavy Industry and Transport Require Stronger Carbon Pricing

 

Decarbonizing steel, cement, aluminum, chemicals, aviation and shipping represents another essential component of the ETC's proposed pathway. These sectors currently generate approximately 8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide annually and face higher costs when replacing conventional production technologies with low-emission alternatives. The Commission estimates that decarbonizing these activities by mid-century could reduce eventual global warming by approximately 0.2°C.

The analysis recommends carbon prices of around $100 per tonne of CO2 to support decarbonization in steel and cement, while aviation and shipping could require prices between $200 and $300 per tonne. Although these measures would increase production costs, the ETC estimates that the impact on final consumer prices would generally remain relatively small. International coordination would be necessary to limit competitive disadvantages for companies operating under stricter emissions regulations.

 

Methane Reductions and Deforestation Remain Critical

 

The ETC also calls for annual methane emissions to decline by approximately 45% by 2050, including a reduction of around 90% in emissions from fossil fuel production and processing. Additional measures targeting agriculture and waste management would be required to achieve the overall reduction. The report estimates that these actions could lower projected warming by a further 0.2°C.

Ending deforestation by 2035 is another priority, potentially avoiding approximately 4 billion tonnes of annual CO2 emissions and reducing projected warming by around 0.07°C. The Commission recommends stronger deforestation-free supply chain requirements, agricultural reforms and increased conservation finance to support this objective.

 

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Carbon Removal Financing Needed to Restore 1.5°C by 2100

 

Although the proposed measures could limit warming to approximately 1.8°C, the ETC estimates that returning global temperatures to 1.5°C by 2100 would require an additional 500–650 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide removals over the century. At an assumed average cost of $75 per tonne, financing this scale of removal would require approximately $500–650 billion annually.

Lord Adair Turner, Co-Chair of the Energy Transitions Commission, said, "Keeping global warming well below 2°C is still vital and still possible." He emphasized that faster electrification must be matched by industrial decarbonization, coal retirement and methane reductions.

The Commission is urging governments to translate these priorities into commitments at COP31, supported by national policies, carbon pricing and mechanisms to finance long-term carbon removal. Its analysis indicates that limiting warming below 2°C remains technically achievable, but will depend on coordinated implementation rather than technological progress alone.

 

Source: Energy Transitions Commission (ETC)