Researchers from the MIT Energy Initiative have released the most comprehensive global analysis to date of the economic and environmental tradeoffs associated with future ammonia energy production and trade, offering new clarity for policymakers and industry as ammonia gains traction as a low-carbon fuel and hydrogen carrier.

Published in the journal Energy and Environmental Science, the study models ammonia supply chains across 63 countries and compares the cost and lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of multiple production pathways, ranging from conventional fossil-based processes to renewable and nuclear-powered alternatives. The findings highlight that while ammonia holds significant promise for decarbonising energy and industry, the climate and cost outcomes vary sharply depending on how and where it is produced.

A Global Dataset Filling a Critical Gap

Until now, assessments of ammonia’s role in the energy transition were fragmented, often limited to single regions or individual production technologies. The MIT-led team combined dozens of regional and technology-specific studies into a harmonised global database, allowing direct comparison of production costs, emissions intensity, and trade routes.

The dataset quantifies levelised ammonia costs and full lifecycle emissions, including feedstock extraction, production, storage, shipping, and import processing. It also incorporates country-specific variables such as electricity and natural gas prices, grid carbon intensity, financing conditions, and geographic location.

According to the researchers, this unified approach enables more realistic comparisons between ammonia pathways and highlights how global trade could shape future low-carbon energy systems.

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Cost Versus Carbon: Clear Tradeoffs Emerge

The analysis shows that conventional “gray” ammonia, produced via steam methane reforming without carbon capture, remains the cheapest option in many regions, but also the most carbon-intensive. In a U.S. context, gray ammonia costs about USD 0.48 per kilogram while emitting roughly 2.46 kilograms of CO₂ equivalent per kilogram of ammonia.

Adding carbon capture to conventional processes can significantly reduce emissions, but at higher cost. Blue ammonia pathways cut emissions by more than 60 percent with cost increases of roughly 20–30 percent. A global shift to ammonia produced using fossil fuels with carbon capture could reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions by around 71 percent, albeit with a 23 percent increase in costs.

Green ammonia produced using renewable electricity offers the deepest emissions cuts, reducing lifecycle emissions by nearly 100 percent, but comes with substantially higher costs, rising by around 46 percent compared with today’s baseline. Nuclear-powered ammonia production also delivers near-zero emissions, with lower carbon intensity than grid-powered electrolysis.

Regional Winners and Losers in a Future Ammonia Market

Energy prices and financing conditions were found to be decisive factors. Countries with abundant low-cost natural gas are better positioned for blue ammonia, while regions with cheap renewable power and favourable policy frameworks are best suited for green ammonia production.

China emerged as a particularly competitive future exporter of green ammonia, while parts of the Middle East also showed strong potential for low-carbon ammonia production. In contrast, ammonia produced using carbon-intensive grid electricity often proved both more expensive and more polluting than conventional fossil-based production.

The findings suggest that ammonia trade is likely to expand significantly by mid-century, with countries such as Japan and South Korea already integrating ammonia into national energy strategies to support power generation and decarbonisation.

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Implications for Policy and Investment

The researchers emphasise that ammonia’s role in the energy transition will depend heavily on policy choices, infrastructure investment, and international trade rules. While ammonia is carbon-free at the point of use, its upstream emissions profile can vary widely, making lifecycle assessment essential for credible climate strategies.

By enabling direct comparison of technologies and trade corridors, the new dataset provides governments with a tool to design targeted incentives, assess energy security implications, and avoid unintended emissions lock-in. For industry, it offers a framework to evaluate project economics, supply chain risks, and long-term competitiveness.

As interest in ammonia grows across power generation, shipping, and heavy industry, the study underscores a central message: ammonia can play a major role in a low-carbon future, but only if production pathways and global trade are aligned with climate and cost realities.

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