A new global study led by European Severe Storms Laboratory has, for the first time, modelled the occurrence of very large hailstones larger than 5 centimetres worldwide, revealing sharp regional contrasts in how damaging hail is evolving under a changing climate.

Published in Nature Geoscience, the research analyses three decades of hail frequency and related economic losses. While very large hail remains most common in parts of South America, the United States and South Africa, the study finds that Europe has experienced the strongest increase in hail frequency over the past 30 years. In contrast, several regions in the Southern Hemisphere show a declining trend.

Atmospheric Moisture Driving Diverging Trends

According to the researchers, changes in near-surface atmospheric moisture are the primary meteorological factor behind these contrasting patterns. Rising low-level moisture in parts of Europe has created conditions more favourable for the formation of very large hail, while moisture trends in some Southern Hemisphere regions have moved in the opposite direction.

This finding helps explain why Europe has seen a noticeable escalation in severe hail events in recent years, even as other parts of the world experience relative stabilisation or decline.

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Rising Losses Not Just a Climate Story

The study also highlights that increasing hail-related losses cannot be attributed to climate factors alone. Europe has recorded several multi-billion-dollar hail loss events in recent years, but the researchers stress that growing exposure and vulnerability play a major role.

As more homes, vehicles and critical infrastructure are built in hail-prone areas, the potential for economic damage rises sharply. This exposure-driven effect is particularly pronounced in the United States and along Australia’s coastlines, where development has expanded rapidly into high-risk zones.

Collaboration Across Science and Reinsurance

The research was led by the European Severe Storms Laboratory in collaboration with Adam Mickiewicz University of Poznań and German reinsurer Munich Re. The involvement of reinsurance expertise helped link meteorological trends with real-world loss data, strengthening the study’s insights into both physical risk and financial impact.

The accompanying analysis includes global maps showing trends in very large hail events between 1950 and 2023, as well as detailed “hail stripes” illustrating year-by-year occurrence in six major metropolitan regions.

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Implications for Risk Planning and Adaptation

The findings underline the need for better integration of climate science, land-use planning and insurance risk management. While climate-driven changes in storm environments are influencing hail frequency, unchecked development in hazard-exposed areas is amplifying losses.

Researchers say understanding where and why damaging hail is increasing will be critical for improving building standards, insurance pricing, and adaptation strategies as extreme weather risks continue to evolve.

Source: https://www.essl.org/cms/about-us/press/

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