Mount Kilimanjaro famed for its glaciers and iconic profile has been losing more than ice. A new century-long study reveals that up to 75% of native plant species on the mountain’s lower slopes have disappeared since 1911, not because of climate change, but due to human land-use expansion. The research, led by Dr. Andreas Hemp of the University of Bayreuth, Germany, provides one of the clearest pictures yet of how population pressure and agricultural development are reshaping one of Africa’s most biodiverse regions.

People, Not Climate, Drove the Loss

Using more than a century of maps, satellite data, census records, and botanical field surveys, the team reconstructed how Kilimanjaro’s landscapes evolved between 1911 and 2022. Their findings overturn a common assumption: while rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns have influenced ecosystems globally, they were not the dominant force behind Kilimanjaro’s plant decline. Instead, the study shows that land clearing for farms, roads, and settlements was the leading cause. Population density on the mountain’s lower slopes skyrocketed from 30 people per square kilometer in 1913 to about 430 by 2022 driving massive habitat conversion. The once-continuous savannas, woodlands, and dry forests that framed the mountain have been steadily replaced by fields, orchards, and expanding towns.

“Land-use change driven by rapid population growth not climate was the primary driver of biodiversity loss on Kilimanjaro over the past century,” the researchers wrote, adding that “up to three-quarters of natural plant species per square kilometer vanished” as a result.

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A Mountain of Life Under Pressure

Kilimanjaro is more than a tourist symbol; it’s an ecological engine for northern Tanzania. Its slopes regulate water flow, protect soils, and support livelihoods through coffee, fruit, and timber production. But this human reliance has come with a trade-off. As agriculture expanded to meet growing demand, natural vegetation zones shrank, fragmenting habitats for native species. In ecological terms, this shift is profound. Once the vegetation structure changes, entire ecosystems collapse affecting not only plants but also insects, birds, and mammals that depend on them. The researchers’ century-scale approach allowed them to disentangle the effects of climate from those of land use. Despite measurable warming at higher elevations affecting glaciers and fire patterns, no clear climate-linked decline in biodiversity emerged at the landscape scale. The conclusion was unequivocal: humans, not heat, transformed Kilimanjaro’s plant life.

Traditional Agroforestry Offers Hope

Amid the losses, the study also found pockets of resilience. Areas where farmers practiced traditional agroforestry mixing coffee, bananas, and trees retained higher plant diversity than regions dominated by monoculture or urban sprawl. Similarly, small protected areas maintained richer species counts, showing that biodiversity survival depends on land-use choices, not just geography. These findings highlight that biodiversity decline is not inevitable. Where shade-grown agriculture or mixed cropping systems persist, ecological functions can endure alongside human livelihoods.

“Contrary to common narratives, climate change had no measurable effect on local biodiversity trends emphasizing the urgent need to address socio-economic drivers like land use in conservation policy,” said Dr. Hemp and his co-authors.

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Policy Lessons for Tanzania and Beyond

The implications extend far beyond Kilimanjaro. The research underscores that biodiversity policy must focus on land rights, sustainable agriculture, and urban planning, not only climate adaptation. Once forests and savannas are cleared, rising temperatures become a secondary threat because species have nowhere left to move. Kilimanjaro’s case also challenges global narratives that equate all biodiversity loss with climate change. Here, the primary solution lies in local governance and community-driven land management. By protecting remaining forests, incentivizing tree-rich farming, and carefully planning expansion, Tanzania can slow or even reverse the decline.

A Human Story on a Global Symbol

For decades, Kilimanjaro’s melting glaciers have symbolized the climate crisis. But this new study reveals another, quieter crisis: one unfolding beneath the tree line, where farms and roads are rewriting the mountain’s ecological map. That, paradoxically, offers hope. Unlike global CO₂ concentrations, land-use decisions can be changed locally. Where agroforestry and conservation areas are strengthened, biodiversity can rebound. In the end, Kilimanjaro’s future depends less on the sky above and more on the soil below on how people choose to grow, build, and live on Africa’s most storied mountain.

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