Global Clean-Energy Trade Rebounds to $479 Billion in 2025 Despite Tariffs and Geopolitical Turmoil: BloombergNEF

Global shipments of clean-energy products reached $479 billion in 2025, an annual rise of 1 percent across clean technology, battery metals and grid equipment, representing a rebound after trading volumes slipped 7 percent from 2023 to 2024, according to BloombergNEF's Energy Transition Supply Chains 2026 report. The recovery occurred despite the United States reinstating and revising numerous tariffs across energy transition sectors, demonstrating that US trade policy failed to stifle overall global clean-technology commerce. The Iran conflict has driven fossil fuel prices sharply higher, which BNEF expects will accelerate the shift toward lower-carbon technologies and drive greater international trade in solar equipment, batteries and electric vehicles across fuel-importing emerging economies.

 

Geopolitical Drivers and the Iran Conflict Effect

 

The Middle East conflict has underscored the fragility of conventional fossil fuel supply chains and is already contributing to a jump in Chinese exports of key energy transition products. Antoine Vagneur-Jones, Head of Trade and Supply Chains at BNEF and lead author of the report, said that as conflict persists, many markets are doubling down on clean technology deployment to improve energy security and resilience, creating a huge opportunity for manufacturers to expand exports of equipment required to power the energy transition. Historical BNEF data supports this pattern, with countries more dependent on fuel imports tending to see stronger growth in clean-tech imports, as illustrated by Pakistan's 189 percent jump in solar module imports in 2022 following the Russia-Ukraine fuel price shock.

Pakistan's trajectory offers a relevant forward-looking reference, with small-scale solar installations reaching a record 18.3 gigawatts in 2025 after years of steady growth driven by high electricity tariffs linked to costly liquefied natural gas imports and persistent power outages. Economies across Southeast Asia similarly exposed to elevated fossil fuel prices, including Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, may be primed to ramp clean-tech imports quickly and are already employing policies to accelerate uptake. The structural relationship between fossil fuel import dependence and clean-tech adoption suggests the geopolitical disruption of 2025 will have a sustained positive effect on clean-energy trade volumes through the remainder of the decade.

 

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Overcapacity and Its Market Effects

 

Persistent overcapacity, fuelled primarily by Chinese overinvestment, remains a critical feature of global clean-energy supply chains and continues to compress margins for manufacturers across batteries, solar and electric vehicles. The world currently hosts more than 200 percent of the manufacturing capacity needed to meet global demand across the entire clean-tech value chain, with wind and battery markets also notably oversupplied. Expanding capacity outside China is now compounding the global supply glut, with Southeast Asia, India, Turkey, Egypt and Ethiopia all growing as solar manufacturing hubs.

Despite ongoing overcapacity, clean-energy equipment prices are no longer falling as rapidly as in recent years. Solar prices continued to decline in 2025 but at a slower rate, primarily due to rising silver prices, while battery pack prices fell from $118 per kilowatt hour in 2024 to $108 per kilowatt hour, a slower decline than in previous years driven by elevated battery metal prices. Onshore wind equipment prices even rose slightly as turbine makers attempted to recover previous losses, reflecting how margin pressure from overcapacity affects suppliers differently depending on their competitive position and prior investment cycle.

 

Reshoring Limitations and Trade Structure Shifts

 

One of the report's central findings is that despite numerous policy frameworks across Western nations aimed at onshoring clean-tech manufacturing, there is little prospect of the United States and European Union competing as exporters on the global stage. Factory capacity in both markets has increased, but expansions have been concentrated in downstream assembly rather than upstream components, and many previously announced projects face delays or cancellations due to slow demand, shifting policies and intensifying competition. The gap between announced reshoring ambitions and delivered outcomes reflects the difficulty of competing with Chinese manufacturing cost structures even with significant domestic policy support.

The structure of global solar trade has shifted notably, with solar cells now making up 44 percent of global cell and module trade in 2025, up from 25 percent the year prior, reflecting the rapid expansion of final module assembly outside China. India's solar manufacturing push has achieved downstream overcapacity and midstream investment, positioning it as a potential major exporting rival to China, with Turkey also emerging as a competitor. Most internationally traded lithium-ion batteries continue to target electric vehicle applications, but the share bound for stationary energy storage is rising, with storage systems making up 29 percent of overall battery shipments and growing 64 percent year-on-year as global storage installations accelerate.

 

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Outlook for Clean-Energy Trade in 2026 and Beyond

 

The rebound in clean-energy trade volumes in 2025, despite significant tariff headwinds and geopolitical disruption, demonstrates the structural momentum behind the global energy transition and the resilience of clean-tech supply chains to policy volatility. As the Iran conflict continues to elevate fossil fuel prices and fuel import-dependent economies accelerate clean-tech procurement, the conditions for sustained growth in clean-energy trade remain favourable even in a challenging geopolitical environment. BNEF's projection that solar deployment will decline in 2026 represents a potential short-term pause rather than a structural reversal, reflecting inventory and policy timing effects rather than underlying demand weakness.

Whether the clean-energy trade system can resolve its overcapacity challenges while maintaining the cost competitiveness that has driven adoption at scale remains one of the central questions for the sector. Sustained price decline is essential for deployment economics, but severe margin compression threatens the financial viability of manufacturers outside China who are needed to diversify supply chain risk. The resolution of this tension, whether through demand growth that absorbs excess capacity, policy-driven market segmentation or consolidation among manufacturers, will shape the trajectory of clean-energy trade through the second half of the decade.

 

Source: BloombergNEF