Voluntary carbon markets remain small compared with compliance-based systems, but corporate engagement is becoming more deliberate and long term. A new survey by the Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing suggests that companies already active in voluntary carbon markets expect their use of credits to increase, even as quality concerns and limited supply shape future growth.

The survey covered 225 global companies with annual revenues exceeding $1 billion and highlights a clear divide between firms that already purchase credits, those considering entry, and those opting to stay out of the market.

Existing Buyers See Credits as a Long-Term Tool

Companies currently purchasing voluntary carbon credits are largely large, publicly listed firms with established net-zero commitments. More than 90 percent of these companies say they plan to continue buying credits, with most expecting volumes to rise over time.

For these buyers, internal decarbonization progress is the primary factor shaping future demand. Around 32 percent cite advances in reducing emissions across their own operations and value chains as the main driver of credit use, outweighing price considerations. This points to carbon credits being used to complement emissions reductions rather than substitute for them.

On average, current buyers expect roughly two-thirds of their emissions cuts to come from operational and value-chain improvements. A further 28 percent is expected from grid decarbonization and similar systemic changes, leaving about 7 percent of residual emissions to be addressed through carbon removals.

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Caution Among Companies Planning to Enter the Market

Firms that plan to start buying voluntary carbon credits approach the market with more hesitation. While many expect their purchase volumes to eventually align with those of current buyers by 2030, more than half report limited visibility on how many credits they will ultimately acquire.

Pricing uncertainty is the dominant concern in North America and the Asia-Pacific region. In Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, regulatory clarity and scrutiny of environmental claims weigh more heavily. These regional differences underline the importance of clearer rules and stronger market signals if voluntary markets are to scale.

Why Some Companies Opt Out Entirely

A significant group of companies sees no role for voluntary carbon credits in their climate strategies. Among non-buyers, 39 percent believe they can fully decarbonize within their own value chains. However, this group shows a weaker overall commitment to net-zero goals.

Only 25 percent of non-buyers have set a net-zero target, compared with 95 percent of current buyers and 85 percent of prospective buyers. Nearly one-third say they do not plan to adopt a net-zero target at all. Sector composition also matters, with non-buyers including more healthcare companies and fewer energy firms, reflecting differences in carbon intensity and perceived need for offsets.

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Scope 3 Pressure and the Shift Toward Higher-Quality Credits

Across both current and future buyers, more than 85 percent are pursuing or considering insetting initiatives, such as supplier efficiency programs and nature restoration projects, to address Scope 3 emissions. As Scope 3 emissions rise up the corporate agenda, companies are increasingly looking for strategies that combine emissions reductions with biodiversity and nature outcomes.

Demand is also moving toward higher-integrity credits aligned with the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market’s Core Carbon Principles. However, supply remains constrained, raising concerns that limited availability of high-quality credits could slow market growth even as corporate interest increases.

As corporate climate strategies mature, the survey suggests voluntary carbon credits are likely to remain a supporting instrument rather than a central solution. Their future role will depend on whether supply, standards, and policy frameworks can evolve quickly enough to match growing corporate expectations.

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