This week, the world is poised for a high-stakes climate gathering unlike any before. COP30, the United Nations’ 30th Conference of the Parties, convenes in Brazil at a moment of climate urgency and opportunity. The past year has shattered heat records. 2023 was provisionally the hottest year ever, with global temperature breaching 1.4 °C above pre-industrial levels. Climate impacts are escalating, yet global action still falls short of what science demands. What’s different this time? For one, COP30 marks a decadal milestone since the Paris Agreement, when nations pledged to limit warming to 1.5–2 °C. Now, after a decade of mixed progress, countries face a 2025 deadline to significantly strengthen their commitments. Unlike previous summits, COP30 unfolds deep in the Amazon rainforest, symbolically shifting focus to nature and frontline communities. It also follows a comprehensive “global stocktake” of climate efforts, meaning leaders arrive armed with a sobering report card on what’s been achieved and what hasn’t. All of this raises the stakes: COP30 could be the turning point that moves us from incremental steps to transformative change on climate or it could be remembered as a missed last chance. One data point says it all: even if every current climate pledge is fulfilled, the planet would still warm roughly 2.4 °C by 2100, far above the Paris goal.

💡2023 has been the hottest year on record, with global temperature “shattering” past marks and nearing the 1.5 °C threshold of danger. Scientists warn that the climate time bomb is ticking, underscoring the urgency as nations head into COP30.

Quick Primer: What Is COP?

The “COP” is the annual Conference of the Parties to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In simpler terms, it’s the world’s biggest climate summit: a two-week marathon where nearly every country on Earth (198 parties to the UNFCCC) comes together to negotiate responses to climate change. Attendees range from heads of state, ministers, and UN officials to scientists, business leaders, activists, and indigenous representatives. Decisions at COP are made by consensus, meaning all countries, from superpowers to small island states, must agree on the final texts. This often makes for painstaking negotiations that run through nights in the final days.

Each COP’s purpose is to assess progress and push forward collective action under the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement. These meetings produce formal decisions and accords (such as the 2015 Paris Agreement itself at COP21) that guide international climate policy and national efforts. Critically, COPs are where countries announce targets and finance commitments. For example, the famous pledge of $100 billion per year in climate finance for developing nations was affirmed at COP15 in Copenhagen and operationalised in subsequent COPs. Businesses and investors watch COP outcomes closely because they signal future policy directions such as carbon market rules, emissions standards, or climate finance mechanisms that can shape the global economy. A COP deal (or deadlock) can influence regulations, carbon prices, and investment flows across industries.

How are decisions made? Through intense negotiations led by diplomats but often decided by ministers in final high-level huddles. Draft texts circulate, get bracketed (disputed text is put in brackets), and are revised in countless sessions. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. Ultimately, the COP Presidency held by the host nation brokers compromises and presents a “cover decision” or overarching agreement that all must approve. This consensus-driven model means a single dissent can water down language; yet it’s also what lends legitimacy to the outcomes.

Why it matters beyond diplomacy: COP decisions cascade into real-world impact. They set emissions-cutting targets (NDCs) that shape national policies and investment priorities. They unlock climate funding, for instance, by setting new finance goals or launching funds for adaptation and clean technology. They also create frameworks for carbon markets and transparency that businesses rely on. The presence of thousands of observers, from CEOs to mayors to youth activists, reflects how COP has become a global climate expo, part negotiation, part public pressure arena. Deals struck (or not struck) at COP influence everything from government regulations to private sector innovation. For example, when COP26 in Glasgow called for “phasing down coal” and accelerating the shift to renewables, it sent a signal to markets about the declining social license of fossil fuel risks.

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The Road to COP30

To understand why COP30 is pivotal, it helps to see how we got here. The past few COPs achieved some breakthroughs but left major gaps – a mixed legacy that sets the agenda (and the pressure) for Belém 2025.

COP26 (Glasgow 2021) – often hailed for “keeping 1.5°C alive” – delivered the Glasgow Climate Pact. Countries agreed to strengthen their 2030 targets and crucially mentioned fossil fuels in a COP decision for the first time, albeit weakly (calling for a “phase down” of coal rather than phase-out, after last-minute intervention by coal-dependent nations). COP26 also finalised the Paris Agreement rulebook, creating mechanisms like international carbon markets. It spurred a wave of net-zero pledges from countries and companies.

COP27 (Sharm El-Sheikh 2022) – branded the “implementation COP”, struggled to accelerate mitigation, but it made historic progress on climate justice. After decades of appeals by vulnerable nations, COP27 created a dedicated Loss and Damage Fund to help developing countries recover from climate-induced disasters. However, on curbing emissions, COP27’s outcomes were disappointing: language to phase out all fossil fuels, proposed by India and others, was blocked by a coalition of oil-producing states, resulting in no new mitigation ambition beyond Glasgow. Meanwhile, adaptation – helping countries cope with climate impacts gained attention, with a two-year work program launched to define a Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA).

COP28 (Dubai 2023) – billed as a turning point, given it hosted the first Global Stocktake under Paris. Indeed, COP28 was a drama in contrasts. It began with a “historic agreement” to operationalise the Loss and Damage Fund (building on COP27’s decision) – by Day 1, delegates formally established the fund and initial contributions trickled in from some wealthy nations. But the real showdown was over fossil fuels. As the stocktake report laid bare, current policies put us on a disastrous path of roughly 2.3–2.5°C warming despite all pledges. A broad coalition of 80+ countries from the EU and U.S. to climate-vulnerable small islands – pushed for COP28 to openly call for phasing out fossil fuel use to close the gap. Opposing them were oil giants (Saudi Arabia, Russia), insisting the focus stay on emissions reduction technologies and not the fuels themselves. The COP28 President, Sultan Al Jaber of the UAE, navigated these rifts with mixed success. In the end, the Dubai summit’s final agreement signalled “the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era” – language about “transitioning away” from unabated fossil fuels and phasing out “inefficient subsidies” made it in.

On a positive note, COP28 did see new pledges to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030 garnering broad support, aligning with UN Secretary-General António Guterres’s calls (though these were not binding). Crucially, COP28 finalised a framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation: countries agreed on a set of ~100 indicators to track adaptation progress, addressing a long-neglected piece of the Paris vision.

COP29 (Baku 2024) – by contrast, was dubbed the “Finance COP.” Hosted in Azerbaijan, a fossil-fuel economy, it drew scrutiny from activists (Greta Thunberg lambasted it as a “greenwash conference” given the setting). COP29’s timing was delicate: it took place just after a major geopolitical jolt, the re-election of a U.S. president vowing to withdraw from the Paris Agreement again. This cast a shadow over Baku, as the U.S. delegation (led by climate envoy John Podesta) could negotiate but not promise new funds, pending the administration change. Despite that, COP29 achieved a breakthrough in climate finance.

Nations agreed on a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) to replace the $100B/year goal from 2020-2025. The NCQG set a post-2025 climate finance target of at least $300 billion per year by 2035 (from developed to developing countries), and even more ambitiously, called for mobilising $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 from all sources (public, private, innovative). This two-tier goal acknowledges what developing nations have long asserted: $100B was a drop in the bucket; their true needs are in the trillions. For perspective, by 2030, developing countries may require $200-400 billion annually just to address loss and damage from climate disasters – on top of adaptation and clean energy costs.

The NCQG, while not that high, is a step toward realism. Also at COP29, several big economies unveiled their 2035 emissions targets (since Paris requires new targets every five years). The UK, for instance, announced an 81% cut by 2035 vs 1990 levels, aligning with 1.5°C. Brazil as the incoming COP30 host, showcased leadership by pledging a 67% emissions reduction by 2035 (vs 2005), with Vice President Geraldo Alckmin calling it “certainly ambitious but feasible”. However, many nations missed the unofficial February 2025 deadline to submit updated NDCs. In fact, by October 2025, the UN reported that only 64 countries (accounting for just 30% of global emissions) had submitted new climate plans, leaving 131 countries delinquent on this key commitment.

Read More: ICMA Introduces Climate Transition Bond Label to Bridge Financing Gaps for Hard-to-Abate Sectors

Where do we stand now on 1.5°C?

In blunt terms, on very thin ice. Global greenhouse gas emissions hit a record high in 2024 (nearly 57.7 GtCO₂e) and are still rising, although the growth rate has slowed. To keep 1.5°C alive, scientists say emissions must peak by 2025 and then plunge ~43% by 2030. Instead, current policies put us on track for around 2.8°C warming by 2100. Even if all current Paris pledges (including those new 2035 targets) are implemented, we’d see roughly 2.3–2.5°C of warming. In other words, there’s a gigantic gap between the world’s collective ambition and what’s needed. That gap must be closed fast, primarily by much stronger emissions cuts from the biggest emitters, or the 1.5°C goal will slip out of reach.

Finance is another gap: the $100B promise that was due in 2020 was only met (and barely) in 2022, two years late. Trust has been eroded, as developing nations wonder if grand promises will translate into real money. With the new $300B goal set, COP30 will be about turning those pledges into actionable plans – where will the money come from, and how will it flow faster?

Expectations from the COP 30

Deadlines and milestones in the COP30 cycle make this gathering especially consequential. Under the Paris Agreement’s five-year ratchet mechanism, 2025 is a make-or-break moment: countries are mandated to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for the period up to 2035. It’s effectively the third round of pledges (after initial Paris pledges and the 2020/2021 updates). This means COP30 is when the global community will tally up those new targets and see if we are any closer to a trajectory for 1.5°C. Also due by 2025 was the establishment of that new finance goal (now accomplished at COP29) and a roadmap to implement it.

Another deadline: by 2025, developed countries were urged to double adaptation finance from 2019 levels – an unmet goal so far, which will surely be revisited. COP30 sits at the junction of several timelines: the end of the first Paris Agreement implementation decade, the turning of the page to more ambitious 2035 goals, and the transition from the $100B finance era to a new, larger financial paradigm. Add to that a world still grappling with energy shocks, geopolitical tensions, and post-pandemic economic strains, and the road to COP30 has been anything but smooth.

Yet, amid these challenges, one hopeful sign is emerging: global CO₂ emissions may be finally plateauing. Some analysts suggest emissions growth is flattening as renewable energy surges and coal use declines in key regions. If 2025 marks the peak of emissions, COP30 would truly be a historic inflexion point, provided countries then bend the curve downward sharply.

💡Only 64 countries (representing ~30% of global emissions) submitted their new 2035 climate targets by late 2025, according to the UN. The majority missed the deadline, leaving the world “severely off track” for the Paris goals as we enter COP30.

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