As China prepares its 15th Five-Year Plan for the period from 2026 to 2030, the document is shaping up to be one of the most consequential climate policy moments of the decade. The plan, due for release in March 2026, will influence not only China’s domestic emissions trajectory but also global efforts to limit warming, given the country’s position as the world’s largest emitter and clean energy investor.

At stake is whether China can realign with the climate commitments announced by Xi Jinping in 2021 or whether policy choices lock in higher emissions through expanded coal power, rising industrial energy demand, and delayed carbon controls. The next five years will determine the level and timing of China’s emissions peak and whether short-term rebounds are allowed in the name of economic growth.

The Weight of Five-Year Plans in China’s Policy System

Five-year plans are not aspirational documents in China. They guide investment decisions across ministries, provinces, state-owned enterprises, and financial institutions. Targets embedded in the plans directly influence performance evaluations for senior officials and executives, shaping what gets built, financed, and fast-tracked.

The top-level economic and social development plan sets the framework, followed by dozens of sector-specific plans covering energy, electricity, renewables, coal, heavy industry, and the environment. These sectoral plans, expected in 2027, often determine real-world outcomes more than headline targets. In the previous planning cycle, provincial and state-owned enterprise plans for wind and solar far exceeded central targets, driving China’s clean energy surge.

Against this backdrop, the climate signals sent by the 15th plan will cascade through the entire economy.

Can China Still Meet Its 2030 Climate Pledge?

China’s core climate commitment remains a reduction in carbon intensity, defined as energy-sector carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP. This approach has anchored China’s climate policy since Copenhagen in 2009 and underpins its Paris Agreement pledge to cut carbon intensity by 65 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.

Current trends, however, suggest a widening gap. Between 2020 and 2025, carbon intensity is projected to fall by around 12 percent, well below the 18 percent reduction targeted under the 14th Five-Year Plan. This slowdown reflects a post-pandemic surge in energy consumption, rapid coal power expansion, and growth in fossil fuel-based chemicals.

To recover lost ground and remain aligned with the 2030 target, China would need to deliver a roughly 23 percent reduction in carbon intensity between 2026 and 2030. In absolute terms, that implies energy-sector emissions falling by around 2 to 6 percent from 2025 levels, depending on economic growth assumptions. Achieving that outcome would require a sharper policy shift than currently signaled in high-level planning documents, many of which now emphasize emissions peaking before 2030 and a looser 2035 reduction target based on peak levels.

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Clean Energy Growth as the Deciding Factor

The pace of clean energy deployment will largely determine whether China can close the carbon intensity gap. The official goal is for non-fossil energy to account for 25 percent of total energy supply by 2030, up from an estimated 21 percent in 2025. On paper, this looks achievable, but only if overall energy demand growth slows dramatically to around 1 percent per year.

That assumption clashes with industrial policy priorities. Manufacturing has been elevated as a central economic driver, while controls on total energy consumption were relaxed during the current five-year period. If energy demand instead grows by a more realistic 2.5 percent annually, non-fossil energy would need to reach closer to 31 percent of supply by 2030 to deliver the necessary emissions reductions.

Wind and solar sit at the heart of this equation. Nuclear and hydropower projects typically take five years or more to complete, meaning only plants already under construction can contribute before 2030. Current policy frameworks envisage around 200 gigawatts of new wind and solar capacity each year, yet China installed roughly 360 gigawatts in 2024 alone. Sustaining annual additions of 250 to 350 gigawatts through the next five years would be sufficient to meet the 2030 carbon intensity target, even with moderate energy demand growth.

Coal Consumption and the Risk of Ambiguity

In 2020, Xi pledged that China would gradually reduce coal consumption during the period leading up to 2030. The wording left room for interpretation, but it implied that coal use should peak and begin declining during the 2026 to 2030 window.

That commitment has since faded from prominent policy language. Recent documents refer instead to promoting a peak in coal and oil consumption, a formulation that could still allow increases early in the five-year period. Without a clear definition of what peaking means, there is a risk that coal consumption continues rising through the late 2020s, undermining climate goals.

External signals remain mixed. State-linked researchers and industry groups have suggested coal consumption could peak between 2027 and 2028, while oil demand is widely expected to peak earlier, driven by electric vehicle adoption and rail electrification. Embedding a firm coal peak year or an absolute consumption cap in the 15th Five-Year Plan would provide clarity. Failing to do so leaves room for policy drift.

Dual Control of Carbon and the Threat of an Emissions Rebound

A major concern among analysts is the possibility of a short-term emissions surge at the start of the next planning cycle. Local governments and industries could be tempted to push emissions higher early on to secure a more generous baseline before stricter controls take effect. This phenomenon, known domestically as “storming the peak,” has been discussed since China adopted its carbon peaking target.

The proposed solution is a system of dual control over carbon intensity and absolute emissions, building on earlier energy control mechanisms. While authorities have committed to establishing this framework during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, policy signals suggest it may not be fully operational at the outset. Absolute emissions caps are currently expected to apply only to selected sectors from 2027 onward under China’s carbon market.

If binding targets are delayed, the early years of the plan could see higher emissions that are difficult to unwind later, increasing the risk of missing the 2030 pledge.

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Coal Power and Chemicals as Structural Headwinds

Coal power remains a central tension point. During the current planning period, China shifted from strictly controlling new coal projects to actively promoting them for energy security. With more than 300 gigawatts of coal capacity under construction or permitted, coal power could continue expanding well into the next decade unless older plants are retired at scale.

The chemical industry presents an equally significant challenge. More than 500 petrochemical projects are planned through 2030, many already under construction. Capacity growth in coal-to-chemicals and oil-based chemicals has directly translated into higher emissions, making the sector one of the few still driving emissions increases after 2024. Without intervention, this trend is likely to continue, offsetting gains from power sector decarbonization.

A Narrow Path Forward

The 15th Five-Year Plan will test China’s reputation for delivering on its policy commitments. A strong plan could prioritize early carbon intensity reductions, accelerate wind and solar deployment beyond current targets, and set clear limits on coal and emissions growth. A weaker plan risks postponing difficult decisions, allowing emissions to rebound before controls tighten.

Given the scale of China’s clean energy industries and their role in economic growth, there is a credible pathway for over-delivery on renewables to compensate for softer regulatory constraints. That pattern has defined previous planning cycles. The difference now is magnitude. Exceeding targets by hundreds of gigawatts has global implications.

Whether China meets its 2030 climate commitments will likely depend less on new rhetoric and more on whether the next five-year plan quietly locks in the conditions for clean energy to keep outpacing fossil fuels.

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