China's 15th Five-Year Plan Targets 50% Non-Fossil Power Generation by 2030

China has issued its 15th Five-Year energy plan for 2026 to 2030, targeting non-fossil sources accounting for 50 percent of total electricity generation by 2030 up from 42.3 percent in 2025, with wind and solar expected to exceed 50 percent of total installed power capacity and become the largest component of the generation fleet, while simultaneously maintaining coal, oil and gas as energy security backstops. The plan, issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, targets total domestic energy production capacity of 5.8 billion metric tonnes of standard coal equivalent by 2030, up 13.1 percent from the 2025 target, with non-fossil energy's share of total energy consumption expected to reach 25 percent and coal and oil consumption peaking by 2030. The plan also calls for new energy generation, mainly wind and solar, to reach 30 percent of total power output by 2030, supported by a new assessment system for renewable power consumption and grid integration, alongside conventional hydropower capacity of approximately 410 gigawatts and nuclear power capacity of approximately 110 gigawatts in operation.

 

The Dual-Track Energy Security and Transition Strategy

 

China's 15th Five-Year energy plan explicitly maintains a dual-track strategy that simultaneously accelerates the shift toward non-fossil power generation and maintains domestic fossil fuel capacity and reserves to protect supply security, reflecting the government's assessment that energy security cannot be compromised during the transition period regardless of climate ambition. Annual crude oil production will be kept stable at approximately 200 million metric tonnes while natural gas output continues growing, with stronger oil and gas exploration, reserve building and infrastructure expansion called for to strengthen energy security under extreme supply conditions. The plan targets primary gas transmission capacity of 500 billion cubic metres per year by 2030 under China's one national network strategy, providing the infrastructure backbone for continued gas use as a transition fuel alongside the accelerating renewable energy deployment.

Coal remains central to China's energy security strategy despite the clean energy transition, with the country targeting development of five major coal supply bases expected to account for more than 80 percent of national coal production by 2030 and coal production capacity reserves of more than 100 million metric tonnes per year to strengthen supply resilience during high demand or disruption periods. This explicit coal capacity reserve building alongside renewable energy targets reflects China's experience of energy shortages in 2021 and subsequent policy recalibration toward supply security as an equal priority alongside decarbonisation. The combination of 50 percent non-fossil electricity generation and maintained coal, oil and gas capacity creates a transition architecture that prioritises energy system resilience alongside clean energy deployment rather than pursuing the faster fossil phase-out that the IEA's net zero pathway implies for major economies.

 

Read more: UN Launches AI Environmental Transparency Initiative at London Climate Week

 

Alternative Fuels and Transport Electrification

 

The plan calls for expansion of non-grain biofuel ethanol, biodiesel, biomethane, sustainable aviation fuel, green ammonia and green methanol production depending on regional conditions, providing a diversified alternative fuels strategy that extends beyond electricity to address the harder-to-abate transport segments where direct electrification is less commercially mature. Wider deployment of new-energy heavy trucks and ships is targeted, pointing to further electrification and fuel substitution in freight transport sectors that account for a disproportionate share of transport emissions and where China has established significant industrial positions in battery electric truck manufacturing and is developing hydrogen and ammonia propulsion for shipping. The plan also references EV charging infrastructure expansion and virtual power plants as elements of the new energy system architecture, connecting the transport electrification agenda to the grid flexibility capabilities needed to manage high renewable energy penetration effectively.

Coal-to-oil and coal-to-gas capacity and technology reserves will be supported with strategic bases planned in multiple regions including Ordos and Inner Mongolia, Yulin and Shaanxi, and Jungar and Hami in Xinjiang, providing domestic alternative liquid fuel production capability that reduces import dependence even as the energy mix transitions toward renewables. This coal-to-liquids strategic reserve capability reflects China's determination to maintain domestic alternatives to imported oil regardless of the long-term clean energy transition trajectory, ensuring that supply chain disruptions or geopolitical pressures on fossil fuel imports cannot compromise energy availability for economic and social functions.

 

Market Reform and Grid Integration

 

The plan calls for accelerating improvements to energy market and pricing mechanisms suitable for a new energy system, with a national unified electricity market system expected to be largely established by 2030 to support higher renewable power volumes and improve price signals for generation, flexibility and grid balancing. The establishment of a functioning national electricity market is commercially essential for achieving 50 percent non-fossil generation, as renewable energy's low marginal cost and variable output profile requires sophisticated market mechanisms that provide adequate revenue for dispatchable capacity, storage and demand flexibility alongside competitive pricing for renewable generation. The new assessment system for renewable power consumption and grid integration referenced in the plan addresses the curtailment challenge that has historically limited the effective utilisation of China's substantial renewable capacity, particularly in resource-rich western regions where grid connections to demand centres in the east have been insufficient to absorb all available generation.

The plan's targeting of virtual power plant expansion reflects China's recognition that demand-side flexibility, aggregated through digital platforms that coordinate distributed energy resources including batteries, electric vehicles and smart appliances, will be essential for managing the grid balancing challenges created by high renewable penetration without excessive investment in conventional dispatchable capacity.

 

Explore OneStop ESG Marketplace: Renewable Energy

 

Outlook for China's Energy Transition Under the 15th Five-Year Plan

 

The 15th Five-Year energy plan's 50 percent non-fossil electricity target represents a significant acceleration from the 42.3 percent achieved in 2025 and, if delivered, would establish China as operating one of the world's largest clean electricity systems by absolute volume given the scale of Chinese electricity consumption. Whether China can achieve the wind and solar deployment rates, grid integration investments and market reform implementation needed to reach 50 percent non-fossil generation by 2030 while simultaneously managing the energy security constraints of a rapidly growing economy with complex geopolitical vulnerabilities will be the defining test of the plan's ambition. The dual-track fossil fuel maintenance strategy provides a safety net for energy security but also creates the risk that coal and gas infrastructure investments delay the transition beyond 2030 if renewable deployment falls short of targets or grid integration challenges prove more intractable than anticipated.

 

Source: S&P Global Inc