AfDB Warns Super El Niño Could Cost Africa Up to $20 Billion

An impending "super" El Niño could inflict a combined $10 billion to $20 billion economic hit on affected African countries, according to Anthony Nyong, the African Development Bank's director for climate change and green growth, in what is the first such estimate from a major multilateral development bank. Nyong told Reuters the event alone could reduce heavily affected countries' GDP by 1 to 2 percent on average, and warned the continent's climate adaptation finance needs could nearly double to $100 billion this year given the expected severity of the weather pattern. Forecasters warn the current Pacific Ocean warming trend could produce one of the strongest El Niño events ever recorded.

 

Why This Estimate Carries Particular Weight

 

Nyong's projection is notable not just for its scale but for its source: no major multilateral development bank had previously attached a specific dollar figure to El Niño's economic impact on Africa. That distinction matters because development banks typically base public estimates on internal economic modelling and risk assessment used to guide their own lending and investment decisions, giving this figure more institutional weight than an advocacy estimate or a preliminary academic projection would carry.

The estimate also arrives against a backdrop of already softening growth expectations. The AfDB's most recent forecast in May projected 4.2 percent economic growth for Africa this year, rising to 4.4 percent in 2027 assuming the US-Israeli war on Iran eases, a projection made before forecasts of a "super" or "Godzilla" El Niño emerged. A GDP hit of 1 to 2 percent in heavily affected countries would meaningfully erode growth already dependent on a fragile geopolitical assumption holding.

 

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How the "Climate Finance Trap" Compounds the Damage

 

Nyong described a mechanism he called the climate finance trap, in which governments lacking dedicated resources to respond to climate disasters are forced to divert money from health, education or infrastructure budgets to cover crisis costs. That dynamic compounds the direct economic damage from a climate shock, since redirecting spending away from long-term development priorities to fund emergency response can set back progress on the very areas, education, health, infrastructure, that build a country's resilience to future shocks in the first place.

The 2023 to 2024 El Niño event illustrates that pattern in practice, having caused severe drought in Southern Africa alongside heavy rains and flooding in East Africa, triggering widespread crop failures, surging food prices and record sea-level spikes along African coastlines. The AfDB estimates farmers are already facing nearly $330 million in lost income this year from ongoing climate pressures, even before the anticipated super El Niño's full impact materialises, while fisheries productivity is projected to fall by 1 to 4 percent due to rising sea temperatures and storms.

 

Why Adaptation Finance Needs Are Doubling

 

Nyong said Africa's climate adaptation finance need, already estimated at roughly $50 billion for the coming 12 months, will now require an additional $30 billion to $50 billion given the anticipated El Niño's strength, pushing the total toward $100 billion. That scale of need sits against a stark existing funding gap: a United Nations report from October estimated developing countries will collectively require around $365 billion annually by 2035 to address climate change, while international public adaptation finance totalled just $26 billion in 2023, a fraction of what is needed even before accounting for acute shocks like this El Niño event.

That gap between required and available adaptation finance is precisely the dynamic the climate finance trap describes at a global scale: without sufficient dedicated adaptation funding flowing in advance of disasters, countries are left responding reactively and expensively once crises hit, rather than investing proactively in resilience measures that would reduce the damage in the first place.

 

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The Mass Migration Risk

 

Beyond the direct economic toll, Nyong warned the event would likely trigger mass migration, with the price of maize, a staple food across many affected countries, expected to double. He identified Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and Nigeria as countries facing particularly severe impacts, regions where resource shortages and competition for grazing land and water could compound existing fragility and instability.

The AfDB plans a bank-wide seminar in September to assess the potential impact on both its existing and planned investments, with Nyong saying the bank stands ready to restructure projects and help countries access additional support through mechanisms including the Green Climate Fund, the Adaptation Fund, Climate Investment Funds and newer loss-and-damage financing arrangements. He framed the need for proactive resilience investment ahead of future climate talks in Turkey this November, arguing it is cheaper to build protective infrastructure in advance than to fund expensive emergency response after disasters strike. Whether the AfDB and its partner institutions can mobilise the additional $30 billion to $50 billion in adaptation finance the estimate calls for within the timeframe needed, and whether the anticipated super El Niño materialises at the severity forecasters are warning, will determine how closely this economic damage estimate tracks reality over the coming months.