The global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market is projected to expand from approximately $1.4 billion in 2024 to $74.2 billion by 2032, according to new analysis from Stratview Research. The forecast implies a compound annual growth rate of more than 64 percent between 2025 and 2032, underscoring how rapidly SAF is moving from pilot-scale deployment toward a core pillar of aviation’s decarbonisation strategy.

Decarbonisation Commitments Drive Market Expansion

Aviation remains one of the hardest sectors to decarbonise, with limited near-term alternatives to liquid fuels for long-haul and high-utilisation aircraft. As a result, SAF is increasingly viewed as the most viable solution available today to cut lifecycle emissions without requiring changes to aircraft engines or airport infrastructure.

Airlines, aircraft manufacturers, and regulators have aligned around net-zero targets, translating climate commitments into concrete demand signals. Long-term offtake agreements between fuel producers and airlines are providing revenue certainty and encouraging capital investment into new production capacity. These contracts are becoming central to airline transition strategies as emissions scrutiny intensifies across regulators, investors, and corporate customers.

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Biofuels Lead Today, New Pathways Gain Ground

Bio-based SAF currently dominates the market, supported by established feedstock supply chains, regulatory approvals, and proven performance in commercial aviation. Among production technologies, Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA-SPK) remains the most widely deployed pathway, reflecting its relative maturity and commercial-scale track record.

However, the fastest growth is expected to come from newer pathways such as Fischer–Tropsch synthetic paraffinic kerosene (FT-SPK). These technologies can utilise a wider range of feedstocks, including waste and biomass residues, and are seen as critical for scaling volumes while managing long-term cost and sustainability constraints.

Commercial Aviation Anchors Demand

Fixed-wing aircraft account for the majority of SAF consumption, mirroring the dominance of commercial aviation in global fuel demand. As passenger traffic continues to recover and grow, airlines are under increasing pressure to demonstrate credible emissions reduction pathways. Multi-year SAF supply agreements are emerging as a strategic tool to lock in lower-carbon fuel access and support long-term climate targets.

At the same time, smaller segments such as rotorcraft and specialised aviation are beginning to adopt SAF, contributing to incremental growth as sustainability expectations extend beyond large commercial fleets.

North America Leads, Global Capacity Races Ahead

North America currently holds the largest share of the SAF market. Early policy support, including tax incentives, blending mandates, and federal and state-level decarbonisation frameworks, has helped catalyse production capacity and demand. Strong airline participation has further reinforced the region’s leadership position, attracting investment across the SAF value chain.

Other regions are moving quickly to close the gap. Europe is advancing regulatory mandates and certification pathways, while Asia-Pacific markets are beginning to integrate SAF into broader aviation and energy transition strategies.

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Industry Investment and Competitive Landscape

Major energy and fuel technology players are scaling up investments to capture a share of the rapidly expanding market. Companies such as Neste, Shell, TotalEnergies, World Energy, and LanzaTech are investing in new facilities, diversified feedstocks, and advanced fuel pathways to meet anticipated demand.

For investors and policymakers, the scale of projected growth highlights both opportunity and execution risk. Scaling SAF from niche volumes to tens of billions of dollars in annual market value will require coordinated progress on feedstock availability, certification, infrastructure, and policy alignment.

Strategic Outlook

The projected expansion of the SAF market reflects a broader shift in aviation decarbonisation from ambition to implementation. As regulatory pressure mounts and climate targets move closer, SAF is transitioning from a sustainability pilot to a strategic input for airlines worldwide. Whether the sector can deliver volumes at competitive costs will shape not only aviation’s climate trajectory, but also the credibility of net-zero pathways across global transport systems.

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