Climate change may soon become one of the biggest threats to household income worldwide, eclipsing risks from recessions, job markets, or taxation. A new study led by Cambridge University’s climaTRACES Lab projects that if greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked, average global income per person could fall by 20 to 24 percent by the end of the century compared with a world where warming halts. The findings reveal that no nation will be shielded from the economic fallout, with hotter and lower-income countries suffering the steepest losses.

Scope and Strategic Framework

The research, conducted by Dr. Kamiar Mohaddes and colleagues, analysed data from 174 countries across multiple warming scenarios, incorporating adaptation speeds and natural climate variability. Rather than focusing on single hot years, the team examined the impact of sustained departures from a country’s typical climate averages on long-run growth. By comparing temperature pathways outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) against historical trends and hypothetical no-warming baselines, the study quantified how persistent temperature increases ripple through productivity and GDP per capita over time.

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Economic and Environmental Impact

The results are sobering. Under a high-emissions scenario where global temperatures climb by roughly 0.04 °C per year, incomes are projected to fall by 10 to 11 percent relative to historical warming trends. Factoring in natural climate variability — such as El Niño cycles that can amplify heat and disrupt rainfall the estimated losses rise to 12 to 14 percent.Against a baseline of no additional warming, the decline grows even sharper, with global incomes falling by 20 to 24 percent by 2100. Conversely, under a pathway aligned with the Paris Agreement, where warming slows to about 0.01 °C per year, the models predict a modest 0.25 percent gain in per capita incomes relative to historical trends.

Uneven Global Burden

The study stresses that damages will not be distributed equally. Lower-income nations located closer to the equator face losses 30 to 60 percent above the global average, reflecting both higher baseline exposure to heat stress and fewer resources for adaptation. Yet wealthier, cooler countries will not escape unscathed. Earlier research indicates that unmitigated warming could reduce global incomes by nearly a quarter by 2100 compared with a no-climate-change scenario. Year-to-year shocks compound the risk, particularly for regions dependent on agriculture, water-intensive industries, or infrastructure sensitive to extreme heat.

Corporate Governance and Policy Relevance

The economic threats extend beyond farms to nearly every sector. Heat waves can buckle transport infrastructure, cut labour productivity, and strain energy systems as cooling demand rises. Even diversified economies such as the United States have shown declines in growth linked to rising temperatures, through higher mortality, weakened manufacturing output, and costly coastal damage. For policymakers, the findings reinforce the urgency of reducing emissions in line with the Paris Agreement. Slowing the long-term warming trend allows governments, firms, and households more time to adapt technologies and infrastructure. However, the study makes clear that adaptation alone cannot offset persistent warming, particularly where responses like urban redesign or asset relocation require decades and large investments.

Challenges to Scaling Adaptation

The authors tested both fast and slow adaptation scenarios by varying how quickly societies adjust to shifting definitions of “normal” climate. While faster adaptation eased some of the losses, substantial gaps remained compared with halting warming altogether. Many impacts, from biodiversity loss to extreme storm surges, cannot be adapted away entirely. Moreover, global inequality exacerbates vulnerability. Wealthier nations can mobilize resources for climate resilience, while poorer countries risk deeper income erosion. Without significant international cooperation and financial support, the gap between regions will widen.

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Future Outlook

The world has already warmed by approximately 1.2 °C above preindustrial levels, reducing global income by an estimated 2 percent between 1960 and 2014. The study suggests that greater losses are inevitable if the pace of warming accelerates further. The findings highlight the stark economic dividends of limiting emissions. A Paris-aligned trajectory would not eliminate damages but would sharply reduce the compounding losses projected under high-emissions pathways. For global leaders, the conclusion is clear: slowing climate change is not only an environmental imperative but also a financial necessity to protect future incomes and economic stability.

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