The U.S. is blanketing its landscapes with solar panels and wind turbines, fueling hopes of a swift pivot from fossil fuels to clean energy. But a provocative new study from Penn State University, published on May 21, 2025, in the Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, throws cold water on that optimism. Led by rural sociology professor Ryan Thombs, the research reveals a stubborn truth: building more renewable energy doesn’t automatically shrink fossil fuel production. As the world’s second-largest energy producer and greenhouse gas emitter, the U.S. faces a tougher road to decarbonization than many assume. So, why isn’t the renewable boom displacing coal, oil, and gas, and what will it take to make it happen?

A Surprising Disconnect in Energy Trends

Thombs and his team dove into two decades of U.S. energy data, from 1997 to 2020, analyzing fuel production across 33 fossil-fuel-producing states. The dataset covered coal, natural gas, crude oil, and renewables like wind, solar, hydro, biofuels, geothermal, and waste-based sources. The U.S., pumping out 20% of global energy and 14% of CO2 emissions in 2023 (per the EIA), is a critical test case for energy transitions. The expectation? States scaling up renewables would see corresponding drops in fossil fuel output. The reality? No such link exists.

Using three statistical models, Thombs found that renewable growth didn’t correlate with reduced fossil fuel production. Instead, 96% of differences in fossil fuel output between states stemmed from fixed factors: the size of underground deposits, the strength of local oil and gas industries, and historical energy patterns. States like Texas, with vast oil reserves and entrenched infrastructure, kept pumping fossil fuels even as wind farms sprouted.

“Renewables are often just added to the mix, not replacing fossil fuels,” Thombs said.

This challenges the core assumption of many climate policies—that market-driven renewable expansion will naturally crowd out dirtier energy.

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Why Fossil Fuels Hold Firm

Fossil fuels power 60% of U.S. energy and 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions, per the UN. Despite renewables hitting 20% of U.S. electricity in 2023 (per the EIA), fossil fuel production has barely budged, with crude oil output at a record 13.3 million barrels daily in 2024, per S&P Global. Thombs’ study points to geology and legacy systems as culprits. States with rich deposits—like North Dakota’s Bakken shale or Pennsylvania’s Marcellus gas—have economic incentives to keep drilling, backed by $1 trillion in existing infrastructure, per RMI.

Policy gaps exacerbate the issue. The U.S. lacks direct limits on fossil fuel production, unlike Norway’s oil caps or Canada’s methane rules. Subsidies, averaging $20 billion annually for fossil fuels (per the IMF), dwarf the $7 billion for renewables, per the IRA. Meanwhile, demand stays high—natural gas fueled 43% of U.S. electricity in 2024, per the EIA. Even in renewable-heavy states like California, fossil fuel jobs (1.7 million nationally) and tax revenue anchor local economies, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Thombs’ findings echo global trends. A 2024 Nature study found renewable growth in 70 countries didn’t reduce fossil fuel use without targeted policies.

“Assuming renewables will displace fossil fuels is risky,” Thombs warned. “We need policies that directly curb production.”

Why It Matters?

The stakes are existential. Fossil fuels drive 80% of U.S. CO2 emissions, and without cuts, the country risks missing its 50% reduction target by 2030, per the Paris Agreement. Globally, unchecked emissions could push temperatures past 2°C, triggering catastrophic sea level rise and extreme weather, per the IPCC. Renewables are booming—solar and wind led 82% of new global capacity in 2024, per IRENA—but U.S. fossil fuel exports hit $83 billion in 2023, per the Commerce Department, showing no retreat.

The study exposes a policy blind spot. Initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act’s $369 billion for clean energy assume market competition will phase out fossil fuels. But without production caps or carbon taxes, states with dual resources—like Wyoming’s coal and wind—may keep both, inflating emissions. This “addition, not substitution” problem could derail climate goals, with 68% of Americans wanting faster decarbonization, per a 2024 Pew survey.

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The Challenges Ahead

Thombs’ study, limited to 1997-2020 U.S. data, may miss recent shifts, like the 15% drop in coal use since 2020, per the EIA. Global dynamics, like China’s 60% renewable capacity growth in 2024, might also differ. Still, the U.S. faces unique hurdles: its federal system lets states like Texas defy national climate goals, and Trump’s 2025 policies, slashing EPA funding 20%, weaken enforcement, per Reuters. Carbon taxes, supported by 62% of economists (per the National Bureau of Economic Research), face political gridlock, with only 3% of U.S. emissions covered by pricing, per the World Bank.

What’s Next?

Thombs calls for a multi-pronged approach: carbon taxes ($50-$100 per ton, per RMI), production caps (like California’s drilling limits), and laws to keep reserves untapped, as Colombia did with 30% of its oil in 2023, per Bloomberg. These could cut U.S. emissions 20% by 2035, per the Rhodium Group. Pairing this with renewable subsidies and grid upgrades—$320 billion needed by 2030, per the National Academies—could tilt the balance.

The EU’s Emissions Trading System, capping 40% of emissions, offers a model, reducing fossil fuel use 15% since 2005, per the European Commission. In the U.S., regional efforts like California’s cap-and-trade cover 80% of emissions, but national adoption lags. Grassroots pressure is growing—75% of young voters prioritize climate, per a 2024 Harvard poll—pushing for policies like fossil fuel phase-out pledges, backed by 80 countries at COP29, per Reuters.

For now, Thombs’ study is a wake-up call.

“Renewables are critical, but they won’t displace fossil fuels without direct intervention,” he said.

As the U.S. balances energy security with climate goals, the path to a fossil-free future demands tougher policies, not just more windmills.

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