Sustainable finance developments this week point to a growing divergence between political uncertainty and capital allocation trends, with long-term investors continuing to deepen exposure to climate-aligned assets, credit markets shifting toward transition finance, and regulators sharpening their focus on climate risk in the banking system.

Oregon Pension Fund Scales Climate-Positive Real Assets

The Oregon Public Employees Retirement Fund has significantly expanded its allocation to climate-positive real assets, according to its 2025 net-zero progress update. The $100 billion public pension fund reported that climate-positive investments within its real assets portfolio have doubled since 2022, reaching $2.4 billion as of June 2025. These assets now represent the largest segment within its real assets allocation.

At the same time, the fund has continued to reduce exposure to fossil fuels in private market investments. Fossil fuel holdings declined for the third consecutive year, falling by $83 million to just over $3 billion. Exposure to thermal coal has also been cut sharply, with the fund now holding $15 million across 12 coal companies, down from $28.9 million invested in 21 firms a year earlier.

Oregon’s state treasurer’s office acknowledged recent policy reversals in parts of the US and Europe but argued that these developments have slowed rather than reversed the global shift toward clean energy. The fund said it remains confident in the long-term investment case for climate and transition-aligned solutions.

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Transition Bonds Set to Overtake Sustainability-Linked Issuance

In credit markets, Moody’s has forecast a notable shift in labelled bond issuance in 2026, with transition bonds expected to surpass sustainability-linked bonds for the first time. The ratings agency projects approximately $40 billion in transition bond issuance this year, compared with $25 billion for sustainability-linked bonds.

Moody’s expects total issuance across all labelled bond categories to reach around $900 billion. It said the growing emphasis on transition finance, combined with the introduction of new standards during 2025, has improved market clarity and created room for further growth. The agency also noted potential upside to issuance volumes, given that around $520 billion of labelled bonds issued previously are scheduled to mature in 2026, potentially prompting refinancing activity.

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ECB Sharpens Focus on Climate and Nature-Related Banking Risks

The European Central Bank has outlined its next phase of climate-related supervisory priorities following the conclusion of its 2024–2025 climate and nature workplan. The ECB said it will continue intensifying efforts to assess banks’ prudential transition plans and strengthen oversight of risks arising from the physical impacts of climate change.

Future work will place greater emphasis on improving data quality, enhancing monitoring of banks’ exposure to physical climate risks, and deepening analysis of nature-related risks, including water-related impacts. The ECB said these areas will form the backbone of its approach to embedding climate and environmental considerations into financial supervision as climate-related economic risks continue to grow.

Together, the developments highlight a steady alignment between long-term capital, evolving debt markets, and supervisory expectations, even as political signals around climate policy remain uneven.

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