On May 20, 2025, JPMorganChase announced a landmark carbon dioxide removal (CDR) offtake agreement with CO280, committing to purchase 450,000 metric tons of CO₂ equivalent (mtCO₂e) over 13 years at under $200 per ton, totaling over $90 million. This deal, one of the lowest-cost engineered CDR agreements to date, leverages biogenic CO₂ capture from a U.S. Gulf Coast pulp and paper mill, with permanent underground storage. By retrofitting mills, CO280 aims to unlock a multi-billion-dollar market, revitalize a key U.S. industry, and bolster JPMorgan’s 2030 goal to match unabated emissions with durable CDR. But can this model scale fast enough to dent the 10 gigatons of annual CDR needed by 2050, per the IPCC?

A Scalable Model for Carbon Removal

CO280’s approach is ingenious: retrofit existing pulp and paper mills to capture biogenic CO₂—emitted from burning wood waste and black liquor—using SLB Capturi’s modular Just Catch technology. The captured CO₂ is piped 40 miles to a saline aquifer for permanent storage, turning mills into carbon-negative hubs. U.S. mills emit 88 million tonnes of biogenic CO₂ yearly, per CO280, offering vast potential. By using existing infrastructure, CO280 slashes costs and risks compared to greenfield projects, achieving economies of scale with mills emitting 500,000 to 1 million tons annually.

The deal’s price—under $200/ton—is a breakthrough. Most engineered CDR, like direct air capture, costs $600-$1,000/ton, per the IEA. CO280’s edge comes from leveraging waste heat and biomass to power capture, proximity to Gulf Coast storage sites (75% of mills are within 100 miles), and standardized project designs, per CEO Jonathan Rhone. The Inflation Reduction Act’s 45Q tax credit, offering $85/ton for stored CO₂, further lowers effective costs.

JPMorgan’s purchase, covering 30,000 mtCO₂e annually, supports its 2030 target to offset all unabated operational emissions (1.2 million tons in 2023, per its sustainability report). It follows a 2023 MOU with CO280 for the same volume, signaling long-term confidence. Taylor Wright, JPMorgan’s Head of Operational Decarbonization, called CO280’s “near-term, affordable removals at scale” a catalyst for broader CDR adoption.

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Revitalizing U.S. Pulp and Paper

The U.S. pulp and paper industry, contributing 5% of manufacturing GDP and supporting 934,704 direct and 6 million indirect jobs, mostly in rural areas, stands to gain immensely. Retrofitting mills can double EBITDA by generating CDR revenue, per Rhone, boosting competitiveness in a sector facing 2% annual demand declines, per IBISWorld. The Gulf Coast, home to 60% of U.S. mills, has robust CO₂ transport and storage infrastructure, making it a CDR hotspot.

CO280’s network of 10+ projects aims for 10 million tons of annual CDR by 2030, potentially injecting $2 billion into the industry, per PRNewswire. Joint ventures with mill owners share carbon credit proceeds, incentivizing participation. Sustainable sourcing—97% of wood from SFI-certified mills, 90% dual SFI/FSC—ensures environmental integrity, aligning with Frontier and Carbon Direct biomass principles.

Why It Matters

This deal is a triple win: for climate, industry, and communities. Capturing biogenic CO₂ prevents atmospheric release, making mills carbon-negative, as trees absorb CO₂ via photosynthesis. The 450,000 tons removed equals the annual emissions of 90,000 cars, per the EPA. Scaling to 10 million tons could offset 2% of U.S. industrial emissions (5 billion tons in 2023, per the EIA). Third-party verification and rigorous MRV, per CO280’s protocols, ensure credibility, addressing carbon credit skepticism—90% of forest offsets were deemed “worthless” in a 2023 Guardian report.

For rural mill communities, the economic boost could preserve jobs and tax bases, critical as 43 states rely on forestry as a top-10 employer. Environmentally, it supports the IPCC’s call for 100-1,000 gigatons of CDR by 2100 to limit warming to 1.5°C.

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Challenges and Risks

Scaling CDR faces hurdles. Phase one of CO280’s Gulf Coast project captures 40% of biogenic and 30% of total CO₂ (including fossil fuel emissions), with phase two aiming to double this. Retrofitting costs, in the “hundreds of millions,” require hefty upfront investment. Regulatory uncertainty—Trump’s 2025 tax reforms may alter 45Q credits—could deter investors, per Reuters. CO₂ transport infrastructure, while growing, covers only 5,000 miles versus 300,000 for gas.

AMR risks from antibiotic runoff, as noted in a McGill study, highlight broader water management concerns near mills, though not directly linked to CO280’s process. Globally, CDR’s 13 million tons in 2025 is a drop in the bucket against 36 billion tons of annual CO₂ emissions, per the Global Carbon Project. Critics like CarbonPlan argue partial capture limits impact, and energy-intensive capture (1-2 MWh/ton) could strain grids if not renewably powered.

What’s Next?

CO280’s pipeline includes five high-priority projects by 2030, building on its $48 million Frontier deal (224,500 tons) and a 3.7 million-ton Microsoft agreement. SLB Capturi’s Just Catch system, deployed at a Dutch waste plant in 2024, proves the tech’s readiness, capturing 100,000-400,000 tons yearly. The CDR market, growing from 30,000 tons in 2020 to 13 million in 2025, could hit $100 billion by 2030.

JPMorgan’s leadership, echoed by Microsoft’s $200 million CO280 deal, signals a maturing market. The EU’s $1.1 billion hydrogen push and Pennsylvania’s Lightning Plan show parallel policy support for decarbonization, though direct fossil fuel caps, as suggested by a Penn State study, may still be needed. For now, CO280’s model—bankable, scalable, and community-focused—offers a blueprint.

“This is about transforming an industry while fighting climate change,” Rhone said.

As mills become CDR hubs, the U.S. could lead global carbon markets, but success hinges on execution, policy stability, and proving long-term storage. Will this spark a green gold rush, or stall under economic and technical strain?

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