Extreme Weather to Drive Food Price Volatility in 2025

Extreme weather patterns are set to drive fluctuations in food prices throughout 2025, according to supply chain analysts. This comes after cocoa and coffee prices surged by 163% and 103% respectively over the past year, driven by excessive rainfall and higher-than-average temperatures in key producing regions.

Research by the consultancy Inverto links these price hikes to climate-related disruptions. The findings reinforce warnings that climate change is already impacting global food security, with authorities declaring 2024 the hottest year on record, a trend that is expected to persist.

Among the affected commodities, sunflower oil prices rose by 56% due to drought conditions in Bulgaria and Ukraine, exacerbated by the ongoing Russian invasion. Other staple foods, including orange juice and butter, saw price increases of over 30%, while beef prices climbed by more than 25%.

Katharina Erfort of Inverto emphasized the need for food manufacturers and retailers to diversify their supply chains to mitigate risks. "Food manufacturers and retailers should diversify their supply chains and sourcing strategies to reduce over-reliance on any one region affected by crop failures," she said.

Climate scientists support these concerns. Pete Falloon, a food security expert at the UK’s Met Office and the University of Bristol, highlighted the growing impact of extreme weather. "Crops are often vulnerable to extreme weather, and we can expect ongoing shocks to global agricultural production and supply chains, which ultimately feed into food security concerns," he said.

Max Kotz from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research pointed out that heat extremes are already influencing market trends. "Last year showed numerous examples of this, with extreme heat in East Asia causing rice prices to surge in Japan and vegetable costs to rise in China," he noted. "Until greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to net zero, heat and drought extremes will continue to worsen, exacerbating agricultural challenges and food price volatility."

With extreme weather events becoming more frequent, experts stress the urgent need for climate resilience strategies in global food production and supply chains.