Experts Warn 1.5°C Climate Goal is Unachievable as 2024 Set to Exceed Threshold

Climate scientists are now saying the globally agreed goal to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C is “deader than a doornail,” as 2024 is on track to surpass this critical threshold. With 2024 predicted to be the hottest year on record, climate experts are increasingly doubtful about achieving the 1.5°C target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at Stripe, noted, “The goal to avoid exceeding 1.5C is deader than a doornail. It’s almost impossible to avoid at this point because we’ve just waited too long to act.” The past decade has already seen the hottest years on record, and despite global climate talks at COP29 in Baku, emissions continue to rise. Scientists predict that the world is on track for a 2.7°C rise by the century's end, leading to catastrophic consequences like heatwaves, floods, and food insecurity.

Although one year above 1.5°C does not break the Paris Agreement, it signals the accelerating pace of global warming. Hausfather added, “We are speeding past the 1.5C line in an accelerating way and that will continue until global emissions stop climbing.” This year’s temperatures are a troubling sign, with some experts like NASA’s Gavin Schmidt commenting, “I never thought 1.5C was a conceivable goal. I thought it was a pointless thing.” While Schmidt acknowledges the challenge, he adds, “People haven’t got a magic set of words to keep us to 1.5C, but we have got to keep trying.”

Despite the bleak outlook, some argue that the situation is not as dire as it was before the Paris Agreement, which had warned of a 4°C rise. However, experts like Grahame Madge from the UK Met Office caution, “We are edging ever closer to tipping points in the climate system that we won’t be able to come back from.” These tipping points, such as the collapse of polar ice sheets and massive carbon releases from permafrost, present an existential threat to ecosystems and human life.