The European Commission proposed a 90% net greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2040, compared to 1990 levels, amending the EU Climate Law to bridge the 2030 goal of 55% cuts and 2050 net-zero target. Announced July 2, 2025, the plan allows 3% international carbon credits from 2036 and domestic removals like DACCS in the EU ETS, sparking debate. With €1.53 trillion in annual investments needed, the EU aims to decarbonize industry and transport while boosting competitiveness. Yet, with only 54% emissions cuts projected for 2030, can the EU deliver, or will reliance on credits and political pushback derail its $10 trillion green transition?

The 2040 Climate Target

The European Commission’s July 2025 proposal targets a 90% net emissions reduction by 2040, aligning with the European Scientific Advisory Board’s 90–95% range, reducing emissions to 450 MtCO2e from 4.5 GtCO2e in 1990. This requires slashing fossil fuel use by 80% and scaling renewables to 60% of energy by 2040. The EU, at 37% below 1990 levels in 2023, projects 54% cuts by 2030, short of the 55% goal. The target, part of the European Climate Law, needs EU Parliament and Council approval before COP30 in November 2025.

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Carbon Credits and Flexibility

The proposal introduces international carbon credits under Paris Agreement Article 6, contributing up to 3% of the target from 2036, and domestic removals like BioCCS and DACCS in the EU ETS for hard-to-abate sectors like cement, costing €100 billion annually. Green groups like WWF and Greenpeace criticize this as “dodgy accounting,” potentially cutting actual reductions to 85%, undermining €500 billion in domestic clean tech investments. South Pole, however, sees it driving $50 billion in global carbon markets.

Investment and Policy Needs

Achieving 90% cuts demands €660 billion yearly for energy systems and €870 billion for transport from 2031–2050, totaling €1.53 trillion annually, or 1.5% of EU GDP. The Clean Industrial Deal and CBAM exemptions for 90% of small importers aim to ease €200 billion in compliance costs. Tax incentives and the CISAF framework target €300 billion for clean tech like wind (40% of 2030 energy) and hydrogen. Yet, industry groups like IFIEC warn of de-industrialization, with 20% of EU firms facing €50 billion in relocation risks.

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Challenges to Delivery

The EU’s 2030 shortfall—48–54% projected cuts versus 55%—signals risks, with transport and buildings lagging, contributing 50% of emissions. Political opposition, led by the EPP and far-right groups, cites €1 trillion in economic losses, amplified by farmer protests against Green Deal policies. Only 10% of 2030 policies are fully implemented, needing €500 million in new grid investments. Carbon removal tech, like DACCS, handles just 0.01% of emissions, requiring $100 billion to scale.

What’s Next for the EU

The proposal heads to EU Parliament and Council, with a 2026 review to set a 2035 NDC target, likely 74–78% cuts. COP30 deadlines push for agreement by November 2025. Success hinges on tripling renewables to 42.5% and cutting coal use by 75%, saving €200 billion in fuel imports. Against 35.6 billion tonnes of global CO2e emissions, the EU’s 4 GtCO2e (10% of global total) could drop to 0.4 GtCO2e, but failure risks 0.5°C extra warming.

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