On May 29, 2025, the European Commission reported that the EU is on track to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 54% by 2030 compared to 1990, just shy of its 55% target, according to an assessment of member states’ final National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs). With a 41% renewable energy share projected (vs. 42.5% goal) and a 37% emissions cut already achieved by 2023, the EU is making strides despite 68% economic growth since 1990. However, gaps in energy efficiency (8.1% vs. 11.7% target), land sector carbon removal (falling short by 42 million tonnes), and Effort Sharing sectors (38% vs. 40% cut) highlight challenges. As the EU eyes a 90% reduction by 2040, can it close these gaps, or will land and efficiency shortfalls derail progress?

Key Findings from the NECP Assessment

The EU’s 27 member states submitted final NECPs in June 2024, improving on drafts flagged in December 2023 for lacking ambition. The report highlights:

• Emissions Reduction: A projected 54% net GHG cut by 2030, building on a 37% reduction by 2023, including an 8% drop in 2023 alone. The 55% target, enshrined in the 2021 Climate Law, is within reach.

• Renewables: NECPs forecast a 41% renewable energy share by 2030, close to the 42.5% goal. Solar and wind capacity hit 400 GW in 2024, up 20% from 2022.

• Effort Sharing Sectors: Transport, buildings, agriculture, small industry, and waste (60% of emissions) are set for a 38% cut, missing the 40% target. Enhanced transport and building policies in final NECPs added 5% ambition.

• Energy Efficiency: An 8.1% consumption reduction lags the 11.7% goal, with buildings (40% of energy use) needing €200 billion in retrofits.

• Land Sector: The land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector, expected to remove 310 million tonnes of CO2 annually by 2030, is underperforming, storing 20% less carbon since 2015 due to deforestation and soil degradation.

“Europe’s green agenda modernizes economies,” said Teresa Ribera, Executive Vice-President. “We can hit 55% and must prepare for 90% by 2040.”

Read more: TotalEnergies’ 263 MW Solar Cluster Boosts Spain’s Renewable Ambitions

Context and Progress

The EU’s “Fit for 55” package, launched in 2021, drives the 55% goal through:

• Emissions Trading System (ETS): Covers 40% of emissions, with carbon prices at €40/tonne in 2025, incentivizing cuts in power and industry.

• Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): Taxes high-carbon imports, leveling costs for EU firms, effective 2026.

• Sector Targets: Mandates for transport (13% renewable fuels by 2030) and buildings (60% emissions cut by 2030).

Since 1990, emissions fell 37% while GDP grew 68%, driven by renewables (20% of energy in 2023 vs. 9% in 2005) and efficiency gains (30% less energy per GDP unit). The 2023 drop reflects coal phase-outs (10% less coal power) and economic slowdown.

Challenges and Gaps

• Land Sector: LULUCF’s decline, losing 42 million tonnes of CO2 removal, stems from 5% annual forest loss and agricultural intensification. €50 billion in reforestation is needed by 2030.

• Energy Efficiency: Retrofitting 35 million buildings by 2030 requires tripling current rates (1% yearly). SMEs, 70% of businesses, lack €100,000-€500,000 for upgrades.

• Effort Sharing: Transport’s 30% emissions share needs €1 trillion for EV infrastructure; only 10% of vehicles are electric in 2025.

• Funding: The EU’s €1 trillion Green Deal budget faces a 20% shortfall, worsened by Trump’s 2025 deregulation, which may weaken global carbon markets, as seen with Columbia River cuts.

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Strategic Alignment

The report aligns with climate initiatives:

• TotalEnergies’ 263 MW Solar: Boosts renewables, supporting the 41% target.

• Snam’s $2B SLB: Ties financing to emissions cuts, mirroring EU goals.

• Watershed’s CEDA: Enhances emissions data, aiding NECP compliance.

What’s Next?

The Commission will propose a 90% emissions cut for 2040 in Q3 2025, requiring 500 GW more renewables and €2 trillion in grids. NECPs will be revised in 2028, with €100 billion in cohesion funds for lagging states like Poland (25% coal in 2024). The EU’s 2026 ETS review may raise carbon prices to €60/tonne, per BloombergNEF.

“We must deepen action now,” Ribera said.

With 54% in sight, the EU’s climate leadership is clear, but land and efficiency gaps demand urgent investment. Will it hit 55% and pave the way for 2040, or falter under funding and policy strains?

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