El Niño Outlook Points to Above-Median Snowpack Across Rio Grande

A strengthening El Niño is expected to persist through the coming winter, with forecasters giving the event a greater than 90% chance of continuing and Pacific Ocean temperatures projected to rank among the strongest El Niño events on record. Across the US Southwest, stronger El Niño conditions have historically been associated with wetter and snowier winters, making the developing pattern important for snowpack, river flows and water availability across the Rio Grande corridor.

 

Current conditions show central Pacific temperatures running more than 2.5°C above normal, according to data brought together by Apaluma from federal weather and water sources. Its El Niño and the Rio Grande model currently projects peak snowpack across the corridor at 20.2 inches of snow-water equivalent, around 9% above the long-term median. The corridor covered by the model stretches from Colorado’s San Luis Valley south towards Albuquerque, bringing together sea-surface temperatures, forecasts, snowpack projections and river levels.

 

Read more: Super El Niño Tests Whether Climate Finance Can Move Before Disaster

 

Higher snowpack could improve water availability after winter if snowfall is sustained and temperatures allow mountain snow to remain stored before the spring melt. The Rio Grande system supports cities, agriculture and ecosystems across a region where water availability can vary sharply from year to year. A wetter winter can therefore provide important short-term relief, although the eventual impact will depend on where precipitation falls, how much arrives as snow and how quickly it melts.

 

El Niño is a naturally occurring Pacific climate pattern rather than an explanation for individual storms or snowfall events. Apaluma’s model includes a verification feature tracking whether ocean and atmospheric conditions remain coupled and cautions against attributing any single day of rain or snow directly to El Niño. That distinction matters because seasonal climate patterns can shift the probability of wetter or drier conditions without determining individual weather events.

 

Alicia J. Keyes, Founder and CEO of Apaluma, said the public data behind El Niño conditions is spread across numerous federal sources and that the company’s aim is to make those datasets easier to interpret together. The coming winter will provide a clearer indication of whether the current strong Pacific signal translates into the above-median snowpack projected for the Rio Grande corridor and what that ultimately means for regional water supplies.