Could China’s CO2 Emissions Peak by 2025? Experts Express Growing Optimism

China may see its CO2 emissions peak as early as 2025, according to new research by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and the International Society for Energy Transition Studies (ISETS). A majority of experts now believe the nation’s coal consumption, which accounts for 80% of its fossil fuel emissions, could also peak by that time.

“Achieving carbon neutrality in a rapidly growing economy like China is no easy feat, but the country’s substantial efforts are starting to bear fruit,” said Xunpeng Shi of ISETS. He highlighted the expansion of clean energy and industrial transformation as drivers of this optimism.

Growth in solar and wind power capacity, controlled investments in fossil fuels, and an increase in electric vehicle adoption—surpassing 50% of vehicle sales for three months in 2024—are key factors fueling this progress. The share of experts who believe China’s coal consumption has already peaked more than doubled between 2023 and 2024.

However, CREA warns that China’s energy consumption continues to grow faster than its GDP, which challenges pathways aligned with the Paris Agreement. “Despite optimism, there is still little clarity on China's emissions pathway,” noted Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at CREA. He emphasized that slow reductions in emissions post-2030 could undermine global climate targets.

China’s upcoming national climate plan, due by February 2025, is expected to outline specific steps to accelerate its energy transition and align with Paris Agreement goals.