COP30 Presidency Launches Fossil Fuel and Deforestation Roadmaps

The COP30 Presidency has launched two international roadmaps to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation by 2030. Presented in Brasília on 3 November 2026 by COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago and CEO Ana Toni, the voluntary frameworks outline measures for governments to translate existing climate commitments into national policies, investment priorities and measurable outcomes. According to the Presidency, energy systems account for approximately 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions, while forest loss contributes 11%.

The roadmaps build on the first Global Stocktake agreed at COP28 in Dubai in 2023 and seek to address implementation gaps ahead of COP31 in Antalya. They introduce country-specific energy transition assessments, forest protection strategies and proposals for international cooperation, alongside financing requirements that include increasing annual forest investment from US$84.5 billion in 2023 to more than US$300 billion by 2030. Neither roadmap is a negotiated agreement or a legally binding commitment.

 

Energy Transition Roadmap Introduces the Belém Readiness Approach

 

The fossil fuel roadmap establishes the Belém Readiness Approach, a framework designed to evaluate countries' exposure to fossil fuels and their ability to manage the transition towards lower-emission energy systems. It assesses three interconnected areas: energy demand, energy supply and wider economic conditions. Demand assessments cover transport, industrial activity and buildings, while supply assessments examine how fossil fuel production can adjust as renewable energy and electrification expand. Economic assessments consider fiscal dependence on fossil fuels, investment requirements, financing costs and energy price signals.

The framework recognizes that countries face different transition challenges depending on their energy systems, economic structures and development priorities. It allows governments to identify their respective transition profiles and select measures suited to their circumstances. The roadmap also emphasizes coordinating declining fossil fuel production with changing demand to reduce the risks of energy shortages, price volatility and stranded investments. Its development included 267 consultation submissions, including 21 from countries or country groups representing 115 Parties.

 

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Forest Roadmap Sets Out Measures to Reverse Deforestation by 2030

 

The second roadmap outlines national measures to halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation by 2030, covering tropical, subtropical, temperate and boreal forests, as well as peatlands and mangroves. It identifies five interconnected priorities: forest conservation, sustainable forest management and bioeconomy development, combating degradation, preventing deforestation, and restoration through reforestation and afforestation. Countries are encouraged to assess forest conditions, align institutions and financing, set measurable targets, implement monitoring systems, and evaluate results.

The challenge remains considerable. According to figures cited from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, annual global deforestation declined from 17.6 million hectares during 1990–2000 to 10.9 million hectares during 2015–2025. Tropical forests represent approximately 45% of global forest area but accounted for 88% of deforestation recorded between 1990 and 2025. The roadmap also highlights degradation caused by drought, fires, and rising temperatures, which can diminish forests' ability to store carbon, regulate water resources, and maintain biodiversity even when tree cover remains.

 

Forest Finance Must Exceed US$300 Billion Annually by 2030

 

Financing represents one of the largest barriers to implementing the proposed forest protection measures. Citing UN Environment Program estimates, the roadmap identifies a need to increase annual forest finance from US$84.5 billion in 2023 to more than US$300 billion by 2030. Domestic public budgets accounted for 88.3% of recorded forest finance in 2023, compared with just 3.4% from international public sources. This concentration places substantial responsibility on developing countries, many of which contain large tropical forest ecosystems but face competing public spending priorities.

The framework examines 30 international financing mechanisms, including results-based payments, jurisdictional REDD+ programs and the Tropical Forest Forever Facility. It identifies opportunities to improve access to finance, expand existing instruments, and strengthen incentives for forest conservation and sustainable management. Additional proposals include improving monitoring infrastructure, increasing technical assistance, addressing transnational environmental crime and promoting trade incentives for deforestation-free production. The roadmap treats stronger financial support as essential to implementing forest protection commitments rather than relying solely on national regulation.

 

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International Cooperation and Country-Led Implementation Through 2033

 

Both roadmaps place national implementation at the center of international climate cooperation while recognizing differences in economic capacity, development requirements and exposure to transition risks. The fossil fuel roadmap proposes a collective initiative, the TAFF Mutirão, to coordinate transition efforts through 2033. It also encourages governments and sectors to begin national readiness assessments and maintain international dialogue through future climate conferences and the Global Stocktake process.

The forest roadmap establishes indicative milestones through 2030 and proposes strengthening monitoring, institutional capacity and international cooperation. Both initiatives are connected to the Global Climate Action Agenda, which includes more than 480 initiatives and coalitions and over 100 Plans to Accelerate Solutions. Implementation could involve governments, businesses, financial institutions, and civil society organizations, although participation remains voluntary.

 

Financing and National Policies Will Determine Progress

 

The roadmap launches also precede the COP30 Presidency's report on implementing the Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T, which aims to mobilize at least US$1.3 trillion annually in climate finance for developing countries by 2035. Together, these initiatives link energy transition planning and forest conservation to the financial resources needed to support implementation. Their effectiveness will depend on whether governments incorporate the proposed approaches into domestic policies, investment decisions and monitoring arrangements.

With COP31 approaching, the two frameworks provide a basis for continued discussions on implementing existing international climate commitments. However, their voluntary status means they do not establish binding national obligations or guaranteed funding. Progress will therefore depend on the actions countries undertake, the finance mobilized, and the measurable changes achieved in energy systems and forest protection.

 

Source: COP30 Brasil