2024 Set to Become the First Year Exceeding 1.5°C of Global Warming

According to Carbon Brief’s latest climate assessment, 2024 is poised to set a record as the first year with global temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the majority of observational records. This surpasses the prior 2023 record, confirming an accelerated warming trend as global temperatures align closely with climate model projections.

The analysis finds that 2024 has recorded unprecedented warmth in seven out of nine months so far, with global temperatures approximately 1°C higher than in 1970 and between 1.2°C and 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. These record temperatures have persisted despite the diminishing influence of the strong El Niño event that elevated temperatures early in the year.

Carbon Brief’s comprehensive review includes data from five global temperature datasets: NASA’s GISTEMP, NOAA’s GlobalTemp, Hadley/UEA’s HadCRUT5, Berkeley Earth, and Copernicus/ECMWF. Three of these sources—Hadley, Berkeley, and Copernicus/ECMWF—are likely to report temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, while the NASA dataset has a roughly 40% chance, and the NOAA dataset is unlikely to reflect such an increase.

Notably, regional climate impacts have varied, with Central America, large parts of South America, and areas across Europe, Africa, and Asia experiencing unprecedented temperatures. Carbon Brief's research underscores that "no regions saw record cold" in 2024, while parts of the globe—particularly land areas—displayed warming levels of 1.5°C to 2°C above the 1951-1980 baseline.

The year also witnessed record lows in global sea ice extent, with Antarctic sea ice reaching near-record lows, second only to the extreme levels observed in 2023. This decline in sea ice further highlights the wide-reaching impact of climate change on polar regions.

While 2024 may exceed 1.5°C in certain datasets, experts clarify that surpassing this level annually differs from breaching the long-term Paris Agreement target. The agreement emphasizes sustained warming levels over decades, taking into account short-term natural fluctuations like El Niño and La Niña events.

With temperatures trending at or above climate model averages, Carbon Brief's assessment indicates that human-induced climate change continues to drive warming and underscores the urgency for sustained, global climate action.